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    Traps and Engines are catchy metaphors, but need substance to work.

    Catchy Development Metaphors Need Substance to Work

    There is nothing more compelling than a catchy metaphor to attract attention and garner support for...
    Economic forecasting is important, but mostly it is wrong.

    Accepting Economic Forecasts as Probably Wrong

    Anybody who has seen a convertible caught in a rainstorm understands the importance of weather...
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    Greece, China and Central Bank meetings fill investors' calendars.

    Greece and China are only Part of This Week's Action

    There are two broad courses for the capital markets in the week ahead. The first is a continuation...
    There is some optimism for Greece and China's stock sell-off may be over.

    A Tumultuous Week Quiets with Some Optimism

    There is a growing sense of optimism that Greece and its creditors will strike a deal. There is also...
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    Can slower traders survive in a fast trading world?

    Life in the Slow (Trading) Lane

    It sounds like a scene from “Jurassic World”: fast, agile predators pursue their slower, less nimble...
    Are there larger implications for China and Hungary's Moves?

    China's (Gold) Fix is in and Hungary Offers Up Some Dim Sum (Bonds)

    China launched its first gold fix. It will offer a fixing twice a day going forward yuan. The...
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    Economic violence has recently been connected to family violence.

    Economic Violence is Family Violence

    Most women who face economic abuse do not see it as family violence. However, the Victorian Royal...
    How much you hate the pay gap depends on your party affiliation.

    Income Gap Aggravation Differs by Party

    A majority of Americans of both parties believe that the gap between rich and poor is getting larger...
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    Alibaba goes where after its IPO?

    Now What? - The Post-IPO Future for Alibaba

    Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba has a track record of breaking records. It not only operates the...
    Bottled Water: The Biggest Marketing Scam Of The Century?

    Bottled Water: The Biggest Marketing Scam Of The Century?

    In many developed countries around the world, tap water is widely considered to better for you than...
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Energy ties between China and Russia are here to stay.
Energy

Brothers in Energy


China used to call Russia its ‘older brother’. However, never again since the fall of the USSR. In an effort to portray its status as a less powerful yet assuredly more senior neighbour, Russian officials have recently begun referring to their country as China’s ‘elder sister’. The new term has proven less popular in China.

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Diverging monetary policies and negative interest rates stir the pot.
Monetary Policy

Diverging Global Monetary Policies Plod On

30 September 2016


The euro is trading at its lowest level against the Norwegian krone since August 2015.  The euro is near its best levels against the Swedish krona in nearly as long. 

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The dollar's firmness is the stuff of legends.
Economic Conditions

That's One Tough Dollar, but Oddly Down for September

30 September 2016


True to its recent habit, the US dollar is finishing the week on a firm note.  On the month, though, the greenback has fallen against most of the majors, but sterling, the Canadian dollar, and the Swedish krona. 

Read more
Data suggests a strong September jobs report.
Employment

Remember September (for Jobs Data)

30 September 2016


Let's admit that the monthly non-farm payroll report is among the most difficult for economists to forecast.  There are not many reliable inputs as it is the first piece of real sector data for a new month. 

Nevertheless, it is an important piece of economic data, and which, as we saw earlier in the year, a significant downside miss could freeze the Fed.  

Read more
Could LNG be the new fuel to power the world?
Energy

Move Over Oil, It's LNG


During this year’s G7 summit, Japan announced its vision of creating a LNG market to meet increasing energy demand. Natural resource markets are a foundation for trade and economic development. What is less well known is the close link between the natural resource markets and the currency markets.

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Japan's democracy needs to accommodate women and children.
Japan

Does Japan's Democracy Have Room for Women and Children?


A wave of political activism has animated East Asian politics: Taiwan’s Sunflower Student Movement in 2014, South Korean 2015 street protests against President Park’s new labour law, and protests in Japan in 2015 against Prime Minister Abe’s security bills. Youth activism was common to all these movements. Facing challenges in a stagnating economy, the younger generations have developed a deeper political awareness from a sense of marginalisation from political decision-making processes.

Read more
Health Care premium growth has slowed, but it is still way above inflation.
Health Care

Employer Insurance Premium Growth - Still a Problem


Upward pressure on US consumer prices is stemming from two elements.  Rents and medical services.   Due to the differences in the composition of the basket of goods and services that are used, the core personal consumption deflator, which the Fed targets, typically lags behind core CPI. 

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OPEC met, Deutsche Bank needs capital and Fed speakers are everywhere.
Economic Conditions

Thursday Headlines: OPEC, Deutsche Bank and Many Fed Speakers


The US dollar has firmer against most major and emerging market currencies.  It remains well within its well-worn ranges, which continue to be narrow.  A notable exception today is the yen's weakness. 

Read more
Ready or not, the renminbi is going international.
Currencies

Are You Ready for Renminbi?

28 September 2016


On October 1, the Chinese renminbi officially joins becomes the fifth international reserve currency. Until recently, Washington played geopolitics to defer the renminbi’s internationalization. However, what about Wall Street? 

Read more
The Algiers talks present the next opportunity for oil prices to recover.
Energy

Could the Outcome of the Algiers Talks Move Oil Prices?

28 September 2016


Saudi Arabia and Iran may yet come to terms on some sort of production arrangement, but the outcome of the negotiations in Algeria this week may not do much to rescue oil prices. Following the media spectacle, the oil markets may have to shift their attention back to the supply and demand fundamentals, which are not reassuring.

Read more
The dollar is back on its treadmill.
Economic Conditions

Without Monetary Policy Insight, Dollar Runs in Place

28 September 2016


The US dollar is enjoying a firmer bias today, but it remains narrowly mixed on the week.  It is within well-worn ranges.  Of the several themes that investors are focused on, there have not significant fresh developments. 

Read more
Italy's constitutional referendum hits in December.
Italy

It's an Italian Thing

28 September 2016


Italian Prime Minister has set the date for the constitutional referendum as late as practically possibly.  It will be held on December 4.  The issue is the perfect bicameralism that gives as much power to the Senate as the Chamber of Deputies. 

Read more
Pessimism reigns over Japanese businesses and the China connection.
27 September 2016

Japanese Businesses Express Concern about the Chinese Relationship Direction


The Japanese business community is increasingly pessimistic about the Japan–China relationship. For the past three years the US-based Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) and the Japan-based Nihon Keizai Shimbun (Nikkei) have surveyed Japanese business people about their attitudes to the bilateral relationship with China.

Results from the most recent 2016 survey, released in July, reflect a Japan that has grave fears about the political, security and economic dimensions of the relationship with its most important neighbour.

Read more
Succession in Singapore is at a new level of uncertainty.
Singapore

Singapore Maintains the Appearance of Democracy


When Lee Hsien Loong collapsed during the National Day Rally speech on 21 August 2016, it shocked not only many Singaporeans, but also leaders from around the world. Although he recovered quickly and was able to finish his speech after a short break, the incident drew attention to the issue of leadership succession in a country that has long experienced predictable politics with little change.

Read more
It is now very unlikely that the TPP will pass in a lame duck session.
27 September 2016

TPP Passage Less Likely


When President Barack Obama said, ‘The TPP means that America will write the rules of the road in the 21st century’, he was not speaking metaphorically. Large passages in the final text were lifted verbatim, sometimes en masse, from past US free trade agreements (FTAs).

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News Desk

  • Australia in Danger of Credit Downgrade
  • Initial U.S. Job Data Strengthens
  • Russian Economy Shows Little Sign of Improvement
  • Is Chinese Push for Innovation Just a New Economic Bubble?
  • Trade Balance Expands as Fed Turns Soft
  • Indian Prime Minister Visits Mozambique
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An English journalist who, when he's not exploring the social consequences of political actions, likes to write about cricket for some light relief.

David Smith

Investigative Journalist

  • British Brexit was a Victory for Far Right Politics
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  • Betting Markets ‘Trump’ the Polls when it comes to Presidential Forecasting
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QFINANCE is a unique collaboration of more than 300 of the world’s leading practitioners and visionaries in finance and financial management, covering key aspects of finance including risk and cash-flow management, operations, macro issues, regulation, auditing, and raising capital.

QFinance

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  • Russia Counting the Cost of Adventure in Ukraine
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Nouriel Roubini, a.k.a. “Doctor Doom”, is chairman of Roubini Global Economics and professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business. Roubini has been consistently cited as one of the world’s top global thinkers. This year, he was voted as the most influential economist in the world by Forbes magazine.

Nouriel Roubini

EconomyWatch Contributor

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Chancellor of the Exchequer of the United Kingdom from 1992 to 2007. Prime Minister of the UK between 2007 and 2010. Inaugural 'Distinguished Leader in Residence' at New York University. Advisor at World Economic Forum

Gordon Brown

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  • The G-20 Must Get Its Act Together: Gordon Brown
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Professor at Columbia University. Recipient of the Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences in 2001 & the John Bates Clark Medal in 1979. Author of "Freefall: America, Free Markets", "The Sinking of the World Economy", "Globalisation and its Discontents" & "Making Globalisation Work".

Joseph E. Stiglitz

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  • Is Africa Sowing Seeds Of Its Own Subprime Crisis?: Joseph Stiglitz & Hamid Rashid
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Chairman of the Soros Fund Management. Famously known as “The man who broke the Bank of England”.

George Soros

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  • Europe’s Last Hope – Will Germany Step Up? : George Soros
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