Economics

How will the Dollar React to the Fed Minutes?


Corrective forces continue to grip the foreign exchange market.  Many expect the dollar's downside correction/consolidation to end today.  Technically-inspired short-term participants often see 3-4 day counter-trend moves to be typical of market moves.  Fundamentally-inspired traders expect the FOMC minutes, which will be released in the North American afternoon, to be read by the market participants with a hawkish bias.  

Dollar Pulls Back Slightly But Remains Strong


Corrective forces continue to take hold of the foreign exchange market. It is long overdue and does not appear to be sparked by fundamental developments per se. Many short-term momentum participants had jumped aboard what had looked (and behaved) a one-way train. Late dollar longs were in weak hands, and once the momentum faltered, were squeezed out. 

However, the dollar pullback has been minor, so far. We suspect is may have a little more room to run, but anticipate a hawkish read to the FOMC minutes that will be released in tomorrow in the NY afternoon.

The Iron Ore Shipping Business is Facing Some Rough Seas


The impact of Chinese demand on global iron ore prices is well known. A less acknowledged consequence of China’s emergence is the transformation of incentive structures in the global shipping market. Dramatic increases in freight rates shifted global iron ore producers’ comparative advantage further in favour of Australian exporters to the detriment of the Brazilians.

The U.S. dollar post-Draghi and pre-U.S. jobs report


The US dollar regained the upper hand as yesterday's downside correction fizzled out.  Draghi provided just enough details of the asset purchase plans to avoid a rout, but not enough to give hope that this is what will turn the eurozone around.  With Europe's service PMIs released, the market turns its attention to the US employment data.  

States and Provinces are Initiating Cap-and-Trade Programs Due to Lack of Government Action


Unsatisfied with the pace at which the federal government is acting to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, several U.S. states and a few Canadian provinces are forging ahead with their own initiatives.

In 2013, California kicked off a cap-and-trade program in an effort to reduce its emissions to 1990 levels by 2020. The first year of the program was a resounding success, with the state's economy expanding while at the same time adding renewable energy.

But carbon markets are more effective, and far more efficient, when they involve more entities in more places.

Dollar Strength Persists in the Wake of Weak Eurozone and Japanese Data


Ahead of the ECB's meeting on Thursday where details of the ABS/covered bond purchase scheme are expected to be delivered, the market is particularly sensitive to developments that could spur a strong policy response.  Today's preliminary September CPI figures were seized upon to drive the euro to fresh lows, against both the dollar and sterling.  

The Economics Of The Illegal Wildlife Trade


The illegal trade of animals or animal parts has become one of the most lucrative black market activities in the world. Driven by the promise of high profit margins, poachers in Africa – namely militias, armed groups, and insurgent groups – have driven rhinos and elephants close to extinction, while murdering hundreds of park rangers in the process.  NGOs and governments now face a race against time to reduce demand for wildlife trade, particularly in Asia, as well as to equip those on the frontline to fight a well-armed enemy.

Is A Steady State Economy Possible?: Gail Tverberg


A Steady State Economy is one that seeks to balance growth with environmental integrity by maintaining stable or mildly fluctuating levels in population and consumption of energy and materials. In our current global scenario – with population and demand for resources rising – what would it take to achieve a steady state economy?

The US & China Must Co-Lead The World In Counter-Terrorism: Dan Steinbock


Neither the U.S., with all of its military muscle and more than 40 percent of annual military expenditures worldwide, nor China, with its rising economic clout and military modernization, can effectively contain globalized terrorism on their own. Yet if they work together, the two countries could rally the international community into effective multi-polar counter-terrorism.

On Monday, April 15, 2013, the crowded finish line of the Boston Marathon turned into a nightmare as bombs exploded, killing three people and injuring more than 280 others.